Solar Battery Industry May Exist Bubble?

10 overseas listing of domestic solar manufacturers, as well as other suddenly popular Chinese manufacturers of solar photovoltaic industry is international in an important pillar of strength and prospects for the future development of how the EU-China Energy and Environment project manager Han Fei come to the conclusion that the long term solar market products supply exceeds demand. However, including Suntech Power (STP.NYSE), and Trina Solar (TSL.NYSE), and other leading manufacturers do not agree with this view.

Yesterday, in the "Second China International Forum of new energy", Han Fei said, although the international market has continued to be popular demand, but because the overall production capacity to enlarge to 2010 global demand is 4.2 GW, Yield is 14 GW.

He said that in 2006 the top five global markets are Germany, Japan, South Korea, the United States and Spain, with Germany occupy 51 percent of the market, and several other countries of the region accounted for 21%, 14%, 10% and 4%. But there is one point worthy of attention, even though Germany is a face-lift capacity of 1150 MW, brings solar cell area reached 675,000 square meters, but the German photovoltaic market growth to zero in 2006, 2007 to 2010, the projected growth is not high, from 1265 MW to 1610 MW, but the annual growth rate of 10%.

According to his research, the greater the potential of the Spanish market, the annual growth rate is about 60%, "the Government of Spain in 2010 that exceeded the size of 200 MW, but now look at the Government to reconsider plans, this would certainly exceed the scale, it is estimated that by 2009 will reach 319 megawatts in the figures. "the Japanese market is Germany's third photoelectric market capacity, but development is not very healthy," the United States is different, the annual solar capacity will rise more than 50% each year . "

He suggested that, if the goal of all continents together, the 2010 total market capacity is 20 G Watts, an annual increase of 20 per cent to 30 per cent, worth about 20 billion euros.

Han Fei more worrying is that due to the excessive growth of the downstream production, solar photovoltaic industry as a whole into an excessive competition.

However, the EU representative said, Suntech Power obviously do not agree. Chairman and CEO Shi Zhengrong yesterday told reporters that the oversupply still hinges on whether the cost and price, "the lowest cost, then the products are more easily sold." And the company's financial director Zhang Yi said, in fact most of the front of a surplus polysilicon manufacturers, "upstream polysilicon manufacturers increased by many companies, which for us is a good thing, upstream silicon material sufficient, then price will be down, we will naturally reduce the cost. "

Trina Solar Gao Jifan chairman said that from 2007, as far as solar cells and modules demand remains large, the upper reaches of the polysilicon supply will be some tension, but in 2008 some of the major polysilicon manufacturing enterprises will be part of release capacity, market demand to ease slightly, "we did have a very strong competition, but to look at the specific operation of the enterprise is how."

Source: 第一财经日报 Wang You Dec. 12, 2007

CHINT Group Plan Construction of Europe's Largest Solar Power Plant

China's largest and the world's third largest manufacturer of low-voltage electrical CHINT Group since announced billions of investment into solar energy industry, finally exposed a vast overseas Solar Programme. CHINT reporters yesterday from the Zhejiang solar technology companies confirmed the general manager Yang Liyou, CHINT Group has decided to invest in Spain one of Europe's largest solar power plant, involving funds of up to 120 million euros.

Yang Liyou Another duty is The new energy of the federation executive vice president of National Association of Industry and Commerce.

"This is CHINT Group to 'go global' strategy represents an important step after CHINT project has been engaged in with a considerable strength, and the foreign direct investment in large-scale solar power station is the first time." Yang Liyou right told reporters.

According to him, CHINT Group will be its overseas partners building this project, the solar technology to be used to come mainly from CHINT own. This collaboration will change the past, only CHINT Group sells its products in the local corporate image, the company will use this opportunity to integrate into the terminal market, and further in the local deep plowing.

We understand that this information is CHINT Group chairman and chief executive officer Nan Cunhui Galicia in Spain and representatives of the Government and entrepreneurs at a forum for the first time disclosed. Galician regional government officials and the region's most well-known entrepreneurs all attended the meeting, and fully displayed the Spanish side CHINT Group of the importance of this investment. According to local media reports, the Government has Galicia solar industrial park project, Galicia in the next few years as the economic development of key projects, the success of this project will have less developed industrial economy Galicia have a tremendous impact.

In the forum, said Nan Cunhui, CHINT Group for Galicia's investment environment and solar power generation industry in Spain has a good prospect. He disclosed that this plan solar Industrial Park, covers an area of 20,000 square meters will be reached, the industrial park will build a 20-megawatt power solar power plants, the whole project investments over 120 million euros. The entire project will create 18,000 local jobs, its annual output value will reach 2 billion euros.

"Local government on this project very much support, in addition to direct help address CHINT Group choice, select partners, but also through trade associations to promote coordination between the parties, the granting of preferential policies also can be said to provide a full range of services." Yang Liyou told reporters that this is a win-win and mutually beneficial projects.

He said that the preliminary estimates, the project will be completed next year will be a fully operational within two years.

As a domestic low-voltage electrical industry boss, CHINT Group already meagre profits are not satisfied with the low-voltage electrical fields. Last year, the company began involvement solar industry, and has set up a specialized solar technology companies. This year in October, the group announced a 1 billion yuan investment in photovoltaic power generation system built production bases, and get the second-generation thin-film solar cell technology the forefront of research and development and production plans by 2010 with an annual capacity of up to 300 megawatts, the realization value of about 12 billion yuan.

Source: 上海证券报 Jun Jun Dec. 14, 2007

QiangSheng Plans Listed on the Nasdaq in 2008

Nantong QiangSheng Technology Company Ltd. Chairman Sha Xiaolin, announced a few days ago in Shanghai, the company the use of advanced thin film amorphous silicon solar battery production technology, is expected to break the long solar power because of the high costs and difficult to promote the bottleneck to use two Photoelectric time in the film battery power price from the current 4 yuan decreases for 1 yuan, Europe and Japan close to the thermal power tariff, the realization of the promotion of solar power.

At the same time, QiangSheng has signed a number of international investment banks intention to introduce risk investment, and plans to next year in September or October, and by the end of next year in the Nasdaq-listed equity scale not more than 100 million shares, to raise 200 million dollars.

Statistics that the United Nations Environment Programme, the scale of China's solar industry ranked first in the world. But our country is more than 95 percent of the polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic cells for battery products, the high cost and complexity of production processes, resulting in high prices and difficult to achieve commercialization. "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Report" data showed that the current photovoltaic power generation cost of about four yuan / degrees, it is estimated that 2020 could be reduced to 1 /, 2030 to be with the conventional thermal power price competition.

QiangSheng late into the solar industry, but conform to the latest international trends, to the new amorphous silicon thin film photoelectric technology. Compared with polysilicon, amorphous silicon thin film deposition battery raw materials used by only 1 per cent of polysilicon batteries, and there is no raw material supply bottlenecks in the production of electricity consumed by only 7-8% of the latter, and non - crystal silicon in low-light conditions under the power-generating capacity was higher than that of polysilicon. In the use of vector, the film amorphous silicon thin film battery is the large-area glass, and can also be activity such as plastic or stainless steel, and architectural decoration into an integrated entity, more extensive applications. Companies are, at present QiangSheng with international research institutions more than amorphous silicon technology to maintain cooperative relations with the progress of scientific research, there is a great decline in the cost of production space.

Nantong QiangSheng invested 25 million US dollars from the United States to introduce the world's most advanced 25 megawatts amorphous silicon thin film solar cell production lines have entered the stage of installation and adjustment, in January next year in production. Sha Xiaolin, the introduction of the first production line is the company's use of its own funds, the second and third lines of production have signed risk investment intention next year to the Nasdaq listing and financing, the company will be in three years to reach production line photoelectric 20 , the total production capacity of 500 megawatts, became the world's top five amorphous silicon thin film battery manufacturers one.

In addition, the company is working with the concerned departments, the plan over three years in Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, and other remote areas, the establishment of a group of 1-5 MW of large-scale photovoltaic power plants. According to calculations, the investment cost only domestic demonstration projects for the current 40 %.

Source: 中国证券报 Zhou Songlin Dec. 10, 2007

China Photovoltaic Industry Polysilicon Shortage Continues:Part 2

Polysilicon supply situation will continue

Polysilicon material mainly used in two areas: semiconductor and solar cell industries, according to the purity, can be divided into electronic and solar grade level. In recent years, the world semiconductor industry and the development of photovoltaic industry, in particular by the development of silicon solar cells is driven to rapid growth in the polysilicon market, the world's polysilicon current imbalance between supply and demand issues outstanding, it has as the world's concerns. 2006 global output of solar cells for 2521 MW, which crystalline silicon solar 2132 MW, polysilicon consumption of about 23,000 tons, accounting for polysilicon demand total 45,000 tons of about 50%; annual output of 3.7 polysilicon 10,000 tons, the market shortfall of about 08,000 tons, but takes the solar cell production capacity in terms of the numerical gap greater.

Faced with a shortage of polysilicon market remained situation, the international advantages of a base set polysilicon production enterprises development plans have large-scale expansion. For example, the United States spent 1 billion US dollars Hemlock polysilicon capacity expansion, the company forecast 2010 polysilicon production by 2006, the 10,000 tons to 31,000 tons; Germany Wacker Polysilicon is a new factory, It is estimated that by 2010 the plant polysilicon production from the current 6,500 tons to expand more than doubled to 14,500 tons, while MEMC is that the 2010 can be expanded two times annually, it is estimated that after 2008, production will reach 6,700 tons ; Japan and Germany-the company plans to invest 390 million US dollars to establish a new polysilicon plants, new capacity of 3,000 tons is expected to be completed in 2009.

At the same time the long-term development of solar energy industry and the potential shortage of polysilicon materials, has also attracted a large number of new investors and new technologies to accelerate the industrialization of the production process. Including a traditional Korean Siemens law input DC chemical, Hoku Hawaii in the United States, Spain Isofotonetal. France FrenchConsortium, Russia Crys-tal, Russia Russia / FSU, Japan M. Setek other metallurgical purification techniques used Elkem of Norway, Japan JFE, Japan's Nippon Steel, the United States companies such as Dow Corning polysilicon solar project started large-scale production.

International original polysilicon manufacturers large-scale expansion and the release of new projects capacity, the global supply and demand imbalance in the situation of polysilicon in 2008 after the end of the gradual easing, it is estimated that in 2010 after the international market prices will also polysilicon With productivity growth down, will be increasingly fierce market competition, technology and cost competitiveness will be the key to success or failure of the enterprise decision.

In recent years, China's IC industry and the development of solar cells, and greatly promote the development of market demand for polysilicon materials. 2001 to 2006 China's integrated circuit (IC) with the average annual growth of the polysilicon market demand for 14.9%, while domestic output of solar cells while the average annual rate of 157% growth. Six years on solar cell production and expand the demand for polysilicon 110 times. 2006 domestic production of integrated circuits used 551 tons of monocrystalline silicon, polysilicon demand of about 847 tons, the output of 370 MW solar cells, polysilicon demand of about 4,100 tons, the total demand for polysilicon was close to 5,000 tons, while the entire polycrystalline Silicon yield only 287 tons, the supply and demand ratio less than 6%.

The rapid development of solar cells, leading to tension in the supply of polysilicon raw materials, the majority of solar enterprises can not operating at full capacity, its yield of only 30% to 40%. In such circumstances, the price of polysilicon materials suddenly increased polysilicon not normal "profiteering" situation has also stimulate domestic investment and business expansion of the initiative.

Source: 中国电子报 Lu Jin & Li Qingyan Dec. 14, 2007

Link:
China Photovoltaic Industry Polysilicon Shortage Continues:Part 1
China Photovoltaic Industry Polysilicon Shortage Continues:Part 2

China Photovoltaic Industry Polysilicon Shortage Continues:Part 1

Polysilicon is the electronics industry and the solar photovoltaic industry basic materials. In recent years, the worldwide semiconductor integrated circuit industries, and solar photovoltaic the rapid development of industry, especially the development of the solar industry driven polysilicon market to be growing rapidly. And the polysilicon market imbalance between supply and demand issues have become increasingly prominent and also caused world wide attention.

In today's increasingly tense energy, increased pressure on the environment increasingly the case, renewable energy by the Governments of the growing importance of solar energy as an important renewable energy, its development and use has become a national sustainable development strategy of group Some 10%. At present, China's renewable energy scale of only 8%, the future development of space is very extensive. As the 21st century the most potential energy, and solar energy industries in the research and development, production, market development have made significant progress, solar industry has also become the world rapid, and steady development of the sunrise industry.

Solar cell is still a great market space

To 2006, cumulative worldwide photovoltaic solar energy systems have been installed in more than 800 GW in 2006, within a year of solar cells manufacturing investment funds over 1 billion US dollars. According EPIA Forecast: 2009, the global photovoltaic industry will reach an annual growth rate of 27 per cent in 2010 to 2020 will reach 34 percent, by 2010, the worldwide installed photovoltaic market volume will reach 11.34 GW (including Japan 5GW, 3 GW Europe, the United States 2.14 GW, and other areas 1.2 GW).

The current global solar market fundamentals from Japan, Europe and other big international companies by the occupation, in 2006 China's production capacity of solar cells enterprises substantially enhance China's Suntech Power, China Sunergy, Motech company has been included in the output of the world row former 10.

Since 2005, the global solar market demand in the international environment under the influence of the global market demand growth, especially in the European market growth of the outbreak, solar photovoltaic industry to China has brought about tremendous growth. China's solar industry has advanced by leaps and bounds, Suntech Power, China Sunergy, Yingli Solar, LDK Solar, SunOasis, Trina Solar, and other companies have entered the stage of growth, constantly expanding production scale, technology has improved continuously, continuously strengthen the competitiveness of enterprises.

China's rapid development of solar energy industry, by the attention of the world. However, the Chinese solar cell to achieve industrial development from quantity to quality changes, is still faced with many problems to be solved: First, the severe shortage of raw materials, more than 90 percent of the silicon material dependence on imports, the prices were too high, businesses started less than the second is the market excluded, the rapid development of domestic photovoltaic industry relies on the rapid development of foreign markets by pulling more than 95 per cent of domestic exports, and rapid development of the photovoltaic industry and slow development of the PV market and the serious imbalance between the lack of co-ordination; Third, China's Sun Industry can be started late, equipment, technology, personnel, such as weak core technology, the ability of independent innovation to be further strengthened; four Although China is "renewable energy" has been officially implemented, but the lack of relevant supporting policies, their implementation, is a process ; five photovoltaic industry is the uneven quality of products, the industry is detrimental to the long-term development; six businesses follow suit widespread phenomenon, brought the matter on, the herd instinct, making it easy for overheated investment industry is not conducive to the healthy and orderly development.

Link:
China Photovoltaic Industry Polysilicon Shortage Continues:Part 1
China Photovoltaic Industry Polysilicon Shortage Continues:Part 2