Solar Battery Industry May Exist Bubble?

10 overseas listing of domestic solar manufacturers, as well as other suddenly popular Chinese manufacturers of solar photovoltaic industry is international in an important pillar of strength and prospects for the future development of how the EU-China Energy and Environment project manager Han Fei come to the conclusion that the long term solar market products supply exceeds demand. However, including Suntech Power (STP.NYSE), and Trina Solar (TSL.NYSE), and other leading manufacturers do not agree with this view.

Yesterday, in the "Second China International Forum of new energy", Han Fei said, although the international market has continued to be popular demand, but because the overall production capacity to enlarge to 2010 global demand is 4.2 GW, Yield is 14 GW.

He said that in 2006 the top five global markets are Germany, Japan, South Korea, the United States and Spain, with Germany occupy 51 percent of the market, and several other countries of the region accounted for 21%, 14%, 10% and 4%. But there is one point worthy of attention, even though Germany is a face-lift capacity of 1150 MW, brings solar cell area reached 675,000 square meters, but the German photovoltaic market growth to zero in 2006, 2007 to 2010, the projected growth is not high, from 1265 MW to 1610 MW, but the annual growth rate of 10%.

According to his research, the greater the potential of the Spanish market, the annual growth rate is about 60%, "the Government of Spain in 2010 that exceeded the size of 200 MW, but now look at the Government to reconsider plans, this would certainly exceed the scale, it is estimated that by 2009 will reach 319 megawatts in the figures. "the Japanese market is Germany's third photoelectric market capacity, but development is not very healthy," the United States is different, the annual solar capacity will rise more than 50% each year . "

He suggested that, if the goal of all continents together, the 2010 total market capacity is 20 G Watts, an annual increase of 20 per cent to 30 per cent, worth about 20 billion euros.

Han Fei more worrying is that due to the excessive growth of the downstream production, solar photovoltaic industry as a whole into an excessive competition.

However, the EU representative said, Suntech Power obviously do not agree. Chairman and CEO Shi Zhengrong yesterday told reporters that the oversupply still hinges on whether the cost and price, "the lowest cost, then the products are more easily sold." And the company's financial director Zhang Yi said, in fact most of the front of a surplus polysilicon manufacturers, "upstream polysilicon manufacturers increased by many companies, which for us is a good thing, upstream silicon material sufficient, then price will be down, we will naturally reduce the cost. "

Trina Solar Gao Jifan chairman said that from 2007, as far as solar cells and modules demand remains large, the upper reaches of the polysilicon supply will be some tension, but in 2008 some of the major polysilicon manufacturing enterprises will be part of release capacity, market demand to ease slightly, "we did have a very strong competition, but to look at the specific operation of the enterprise is how."

Source: 第一财经日报 Wang You Dec. 12, 2007